Nearly $1 trillion in multifamily loans matured in 2025[1], and the refinancing wave continues into 2026. For property owners and operators, this creates a new reality: occupancy isn’t just about monthly revenue anymore—it’s about whether you can successfully refinance on favorable terms.
The lending landscape has shifted dramatically. Higher interest rates, tighter underwriting standards, and increased scrutiny on property fundamentals mean that lenders are no longer willing to overlook soft occupancy or inconsistent rent rolls. When your loan comes due, your current performance becomes the primary lens through which lenders evaluate your refinancing application.
The Delinquency Data Tells the Story
CMBS multifamily delinquencies reached 6.59% in the third quarter of 2025[2], reflecting growing pressure on properties unable to demonstrate strong fundamentals when refinancing. In October 2025 alone, the multifamily sector recorded more than $300 million in new delinquencies than cures[3], a net increase that signals real challenges for operators who can’t maintain occupancy and cash flow.
GSE delinquencies are rising as well, with Fannie Mae reporting rates of 0.68% and Freddie Mac at 0.51%[4]. While these rates remain relatively low by historical standards, the trend is unmistakable: properties with weak fundamentals are facing refinancing headwinds that stronger performers are not.
Two Markets Are Emerging
A clear divide is forming in the multifamily market between properties that can refinance successfully and those that can’t.
Properties refinancing from strength share common characteristics: occupancy rates consistently at 94-95% or higher, stable rent rolls with strong retention, demonstrated ability to maintain performance even during market corrections, and cash flow sufficient to service higher debt costs.
Properties facing challenges tell a different story: occupancy rates fluctuating in the low-to-mid 80s or below, inconsistent leasing velocity and high turnover, difficulty demonstrating reliable cash flow to lenders, and weakening negotiating position when loan maturity arrives.
The difference between these two groups isn’t just about current revenue; it’s about access to capital, terms on refinancing, and, in some cases, whether refinancing is even possible.
Why Current Performance Matters More Than Projections
When you sit down with a lender to refinance a maturing loan, they’re not interested in five-year projections or promises about what you’ll achieve next quarter. They’re looking at a specific set of metrics that demonstrate current performance:
Occupancy rate over the trailing 12 months. Lenders want to see consistency, not volatility. A property that’s been at 95% for a year tells a completely different story than one that’s bounced between 85% and 92%.
Rent roll stability and tenant retention. High turnover signals operational risk. Strong retention indicates that residents value the property and are likely to continue paying rent on time.
Debt service coverage ratio at current rates. Can your property service debt at today’s interest rates, not the rates you locked in five years ago? Lenders will calculate this based on actual performance, not optimistic assumptions.
Recent leasing velocity and pricing power. Are you filling units quickly at asking rates, or are concessions becoming necessary to maintain occupancy? This tells lenders whether your market position is strong or weakening.
Every month you operate below optimal occupancy isn’t just costing you rental income, it’s actively weakening the story you’ll tell when refinancing. Lenders need to see months of consistent, strong performance. You can’t manufacture that history in the 60 days before your loan matures.
The Window to Act Is Now
If your loan matures in 2026, the time to strengthen occupancy is before you’re negotiating with lenders. You need a track record of strong performance, and it takes months to build.
Consider the timeline: most lenders require 6-12 months of consistent occupancy performance. If your loan matures in Q3 or Q4 of 2026, you need to be hitting your occupancy targets now, not scrambling to improve performance when refinancing conversations begin.
The cost of delay is significant. Operating at 88% occupancy instead of 95% for six months doesn’t just mean lost rent revenue, it means entering refinancing negotiations from a position of weakness. That translates into higher interest rates, more restrictive covenants, larger equity injections, or in worst cases, difficulty securing refinancing at all.
Accelerated Leasing as a Refinancing Strategy
This is where accelerated leasing shifts from a revenue optimization tactic to a capital strategy. Bringing in experienced leasing professionals who can immediately increase conversion rates, improve follow-up, and drive qualified prospect traffic isn’t just about filling units faster; it’s about building the performance track record you’ll need when refinancing.
Properties that invest in leasing support now are positioning themselves to refinance from strength. They’re building months of consistent 95%+ occupancy, demonstrating reliable cash flow, and showing lenders that their property is operationally sound even in a challenging market.
Properties that wait are hoping the market improves before their loan matures—a risky bet when lenders are looking at today’s performance, not tomorrow’s potential.
The Bottom Line
The refinancing wave that began in 2025 continues into 2026, and it’s creating winners and losers based on occupancy performance. Properties with strong fundamentals are refinancing successfully. Properties with soft occupancy are facing difficult conversations with lenders.
If your loan matures this year, your current occupancy rate is the most important number on your property—more important than rent growth projections, more important than long-term market trends, and more important than what comparable properties are doing.
Fill units faster. Strengthen your fundamentals now. And position yourself to refinance from strength, not desperation.
Because when your loan comes due, your current performance is the only story that matters.
Sources:
[1] Mortgage Bankers Association – Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024
[2] Mortgage Bankers Association – Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Mixed in Third-Quarter 2025
[3] Commercial Property Executive – 2025 CMBS Delinquency Rates
[4] Multi-Housing News – Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Mixed in Q3
